A lot is riding on the Tesla Cybertruck

Let’s talk about the Tesla Cybertruck for a minute. When Elon Musk revealed the Cybertruck way back in November of 2019, it was a completely wild sci-fi fantasy truck that shook-up the industry & expectations. But back in 2019, the EV landscape looked a lot different than it does today. For example, 1) There weren’t any other seriously active players in the market other than Tesla. 2) The EV perceptions were not nearly as split/divided as they are today. And 3) Vehicle prices, especially EV prices, had not soared off the charts yet. But now…

3 long years have gone by…

And the automotive industry has changed drastically since the Cybertruck’s reveal. Now, every automotive manufacturer is in a frenzy to go electric. And now, competing EV pickup trucks have already filtered into the market. In other words, it’s not just Elon Musk’s playground anymore. And the Cybertruck will actually have to compete with other EV trucks.

Back in 2019…

Consumers hadn’t necessarily formed their opinion on EVs yet. But I feel like Americans have become more divided on EVs now. It’s gone political. Sure, there may be a growing number of people who are opening-up to the possibility of owning an EV. But there’s also a growing number of people who suspect EVs are being pushed, legislated, and marketed under false pretenses. Therefore – there is more resistance.

Also in the past 3 years…

The price of vehicles has inflated to record highs. Nowhere is this truer than the EV segment. Since 2019, essentially every other car manufacturer has come to compete in the EV space. And now there is big competition for limited & expensive foreign resources. It’s driving the costs of EVs up even higher AND causing more supply issues. The EV pickups that are trickling to market now… they’re all realistically touching 6 figures or more.

It’s been 3 years already since the Tesla Cybertruck’s unveiling…

Yet in a best-case scenario, it will be another full year before Cybertrucks even start to hit the pavement. The Tesla Cybertruck was HOT 3-4 years ago in concept on social media… but will that heat have fizzled 4-years later in reality. How stale will the Cybertruck be by the time it actually comes out? Has it just been too long? Will the ultra-polarizing design translate to the real world, or will it be ridiculed?

If Tesla follows through on Cybertruck production & it flops… all that lost steam will be a bad look. It will show that not everything Elon Musk touches is gold. There are currently an estimated 1.6 million deposits out there on the Cybertruck. That doesn’t mean 1.6 million people actually intend on buying the vehicle. But – legacy auto makers like Ford, GM, and Volkswagen (even Rivian if possible) will seize the opportunity to convert some customers, tip the scales, and dethrone Tesla.

But let’s just say Elon Musk were to end up scraping the Cybertruck altogether… under the realization that it’s just too far ‘out there’ for today’s more competitive & conservative EV truck market. Well… that would also be a bad look. It opens the door for legacy automakers to paint Elon as a distracted CEO who crowd-funds, chases squirrels, and ultimately breaks promises. And that just can’t happen. Basically – either hypothetical outcome (flop or scrap) gives the legacy automakers a window to tame the EV wild-west & ‘restore order’ in a sense. That’s why I think the Tesla Cybertruck is more critical than we realize. A lot is riding on this EV truck… that’s been steadily cooling for 3-4 years.