Have EVs hit a ceiling?

Legacy car manufactures have been in an all-out race to go EV, but have they all been racing for just 10% of the market? Have EVs hit a ceiling? I’ll explain that in a minute… but first let’s back this up a few years to set the scene. And warning: This is about to get a little political, but factual…

The surge behind this EV agenda (at least here in the US)…

Was brought-on by the current presidential administration. Sorry if that gets your feathers ruffled. But under the Trump administration, the government wasn’t meddling with the automotive industry too much. Meaning, a Tesla could compete with a Dodge Hellcat, and the beauty of this country was that ‘we the people’ could chose the one we favored. Sure – there were commonsense regulations to keep companies on the up-&-up from an environmental standpoint, as there should be. But otherwise… 

Car makers were free to build what their customers wanted. 

And the government didn’t have a dog in the fight. It’s obvious that our political parties are working completely against each other at this point, largely at the citizens’ expense. And therefore – elections are causing big, drastic, reactionary swings both socially & economically… to undo whatever the previous administration did. So Biden revoked permits for the Keystone pipeline. The Biden admin has also proposed more stringent regulations on the automotive industry AND took the leash off the EPA, while setting lofty deadline/goal-dates to kill new sales of vehicles powered by internal combustion engines. 

All of this works in symphony to manipulate a market & push an EV agenda. 

1) Closing pipelines makes costs go up at the pump. 2) Intentionally unrealistic proposed tailpipe regulations essentially force car makers to go EV. 3) More power & funding to government agencies like the EPA, allows them to hunt, fine, & shut down American businesses that do not conform… and impose asinine rules & regulations without a vote. In whole, the current administration is using its power to channel the automotive industry into EVs. Like corralling cattle. Which they coincidentally also want to destroy… because of toxic cow farts. 

Let me be very clear: This isn’t me “getting political”…

Rather, this is me having to REACT to politics that has invaded my hobby, my passion, my culture, my career, my artistic expression, and my freedom. There’s a big difference there & I hope you can see it. 

But in a nutshell, that’s why the automotive industry has been racing to EVs… 

But the glitch here: Is that this EV transition isn’t naturally consumer-driven. Instead, it’s largely government-forced. And therein lies the problem. You are forcing/squeezing people to buy something that many of them don’t want… at a price they can’t easily afford. For a product that in many ways, is less convenient & more restricted. It’s not a super-attractive option for most. But having said that…

It seems about 10% of the U.S. population are willing ‘early EV adopters’. 

That means – about 10% of the people like the tech, they think it’s cool stuff, and they don’t mind paying more to be on the frontend of it. They’re also more patient with EV charging infrastructure, recalls, ownership hiccups, obsolescence, etc. And that’s all totally fine & good. 

But there seems to be a ceiling at about 10%… 

And it’s a ceiling that’s apparently caught legacy car manufacturers by surprise. They’re having a tough time breaking through the 10% barrier… as evidenced by EVs stacking up at dealerships. 

See – for the pasts few years, car makers have been racing to build EVs. And racing & racing & racing. Talking-up the millions of EVs they’re gonna be making within a couple years… perhaps never looking up to read the room. All we heard as marketing victims, was how much “demand’ there was. Soooo much demand for EVs… because a gaggle of people put an hundred-dollar refundable deposit on an EV truck a few years ago. Electric vehicles have been the biggest hype-train to happen to automobiles… since automobiles. EVs have had more than their fair share of growing pains, recalls, delays, broken promises, deceptions, and inventory shortages. And now that production is finally stabilizing & EVs are finally starting to come through the pipeline… they’re stacking-up unsold at dealerships. It illustrates that maybe… 

The early adopters have adopted…

And the rest of the people… just don’t want it. And they won’t… until all the uncertainties have been ironed out. The masses are not necessarily resistant to EVs, they’re just not gonna be on board until it makes sense. For them, they’re reasonably skeptical. And yes, EVs have become blatantly politically manipulated under a false illusion of ‘sustainability’… so that has caused some added resistance & backlash.

People want to see how this fad shakes out…

Yeah we’ve all heard that “EVs are the future.” They’ve said that many, many times. But despite the repetitive sales pitch, the masses need to see significant improvements in infrastructure, as well as vehicle cost reductions & improvements in overall capability. To break past the 10% ceiling, EVs have to evolve to a point where they’re cost effective, easy & quick to charge, non-restrictive, and safe. It needs to make sense. And it needs to not be forced. Put it this way: If EVs were truly a better option, wouldn’t people flock to buy them even without government incentives or mandates? I’m not saying it won’t get there… but it’s not there yet. And it’s not yet suited for the person who’s not willing to adjust their lifestyle. 

As illustrated by our Ford article last week…

Perhaps manufactures are starting to come out of their “we’re not gonna listen to our customers” coma & realize that it doesn’t necessarily have to be “full-scale” anything. We don’t all live the same lifestyle, or live in the same environments, or have the same requirements in a vehicle. And if you really want what’s best for the planet, if that’s your main issue behind all this, then I’d suggest removing some politicians first… as that’s where your real threat is.  

So how long will it take EVs to break through the 10% barrier in America? 

I guess that depends on how much more money our current government is willing to print & throw at this agenda. Charging infrastructure has got to be improved exponentially, which is why we’re seeing Tesla get bookoos of government money as a reward for opening their charging stations to other makes/models. It’s also why other car manufactures are joining forces to build their own chargers. Yet simultaneously at this point, I think US car manufacturers are pumping the brakes just a little bit to see which way the next election goes. At the same time, they can’t get left behind. And they’ve got to sort this out globally as well. Man it’s a catch-22. I wonder if companies like Ford, GM, Volkswagen, Stellantis, etc ever wish they had saved themselves billions & just let Tesla be Tesla. 

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